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（原标题：万字长文：被疯传的高盛电话会究竟说了什么？）
万字长文：被疯传的高盛电话会究竟说了什么？地平线全球策略.从昨晚脱手就抑遏有一又友在后台筹商，酌量高盛交游台的电话会究竟说了什么，传到临了，会议内容也出现了好几个不同的版块，真真假假在阛阓上造成了各类小作文。本文对会议的主要内容进行了梳理，需要齐备内容的机构一又友不错筹商高盛官方销售灵通入会权限。正文Good afternoon， everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Im todays host via Joe from Goldmans Hong Kong equity sales debt. So this morning， PBOC surprise the market with a larger than expected using package. They announce a series of easing measures， including 20 basis point primary policy rate cuts， 50 basis points， a triple R cuts and a 50 basis point existing mortgage rate cut. And then， oh， we， wed， we definitely see the Hansen index close up 4% today， which is a big rally.人人下昼好。感谢人人参加今天的会议。我是今天的主合手东说念主，来豪迈盛香港股票销售债务部的乔。今天上昼，中国东说念主民银行出乎阛阓预眼力推出了超预期的一揽子宽松政策。他们秘书了一系列宽松步骤，包括20个基点的低级政策利率下调、50个基点的三R下长入50个基点的现存典质贷款利率下调。然后，咱们看到恒生指数今天收盘高潮 4%，这是一个大反弹。So today we have our China economist Li Shenwang， China Strategy Fusi， China Property Analyst Wang Yi， and Sales Trader Fed in to join us to discuss our current view post the monetary policy and also what investor flow and feedback we have on the China market.今天，咱们请到了中国经济学家、中国策略分析师、中国房地产分析师和销售交游员，与咱们一都筹商现时货币政策后的不雅点，以及投资者对中国阛阓的见识和反馈。政策能空闲哪些预期？So first of all， with Li Shen， I guess like your team and also market has been discussing or expect in this monetary easing for quite a while given the domestic weak demand. But what exactly are meeting the expectations here from the policies?起初，李申先生，我想，鉴于国内需求疲软，您的团队和阛阓对货币宽松政策的筹商或预期照旧有一段时辰了。但政策究竟能空闲哪些预期？Yeah， thanks. Yeah， and good afternoon， everyone. Thanks for having me. So from todays announcement， we do see， you know， the PBOC tried so hard to wake the market up. September ends. We think the overall background is that， you know， the larger than expected Fed rate cuts create a favorable external environment， reducing PBOCs concern on FX stability. But in China， we do have a continued weakness in domestic demand. Thats why PBO see and a few other government bodies appear to be more willing to do easing.好的 谢谢人人下昼好谢谢你们邀请我。从今天的公告中，咱们确乎看到，东说念主行接力叫醒阛阓。九月收尾了。咱们认为，总体配景是，好意思联储降息幅度超出预期，创造了有益的外部环境，裁减了东说念主行对外汇踏实性的担忧。但在中国，内需确乎合手续疲软。这即是为什么东说念主行和其他一些政府机构似乎更景观采用宽松政策。If you look at the details of this easing measures， we see the magnitude of triple a cuts and policy rate cuts beat market and our expectation modestly. You know， before the PBOCs announcement， our previous expectation was， you know， 25 beeps Jabar cuts plus 10 beeps policy rate cut towards the end of this year. But， you know， the PPOC announced 50 beats cheaper cuts and Governor Pan also give a heads up saying there could be another 25 to 50 beeps to park at by the end of this year. You know， the tribal cuts is， you know， almost three times of our previous expectation.如果你看一下此次宽松步骤的细节，咱们会发现三连降和政策利率下调的幅度小幅超出了阛阓和咱们的预期。要知说念，在东说念主行秘书之前，咱们之前的预期是在本年年底前下调25个基点，再加高下调政策利率10个基点。然则，你知说念，东说念主行秘书了50降息，潘行长也提了个醒，说到本年年底可能还会有25到50降息。要知说念，简直是咱们之前预期的三倍。Well， for the rate cuts， you know， it was done by 20 beeps larger than 10 beeves expect did by US and markets. So the magnitude was a surprise. But if you look at the cast to existing mortgages， we do believe its largely in line with market speculation several weeks ago， Bloomberg reports mentioning there could be a two step reduction to existing mortgages by a total of fi 80 beeps. So the 50 beeps cuts to existing mortgages should serve， as you know， largely in line with market expectation. But to protect the bank net interest margin， tboc also pledged to lower deposit rates by 20 to 25 beeps. So the impact on the overall banking sector should be largely neutral. But you know， triple cuts itself will definitely inject at least RMB 1 trillion long term liquidity into the banking system to support a credit extent.要知说念，降息的幅度忘形国和阛阓预期的 10 大 20 个。因此，幅度之大令东说念主吃惊。但如果你看一下现存典质贷款的投放，咱们确乎认为这在很猛经由上与几周前的阛阓意想一致，彭博社的报说念提到可能会对现存典质贷款进行两步下调，算计下调80个基点。因此，如你所知，对现存典质贷款削减 50 个基点的作念法应与阛阓预期基本一致。但为了保护银行的净息差，TBOC 还痛快将进款利率下调 20 至 25 个基点。因此，这对通盘银行业的影响应该基本上是中性的。但要知说念，三连降自己服气会向银行体系注入至少 1 万亿元东说念主民币的永恒流动性，以守旧信贷范围。Mention final point is that the format of the basket of easing measures， this also， you know， slightly surprise press markets. We have the deal cuts to both triple R and policy rates， which was pretty rare in recent years. We also got， you know， several sort supportive measures for， you know， list companys cashback back the share backbag and also， you know， to improve non bank financial institutions.临了要提到的是，一揽子宽松步骤的神志也让阛阓略感偶然。咱们有削减和政策利率的交游，这在比年来是尽头旷费的。咱们还得到了，你知说念，几个排序的守旧步骤，你知说念，上市公司的现款回购股份，还有，改善非银行金融机构。So taken this together， we think this is a， you know， modest beat market expectations. But after this， we do believe policymakers， you know， and also some investors， they focus more on the next stage of easing. In our view， demand side easing will be quite crucial， especially on， you know， physical and housing. Easy.因此，概述来看，咱们认为这是一个放胆超出阛阓预期的遵守。但在此之后，咱们信赖政策制定者，还有一些投资者，会愈加关注下一阶段的宽松政策。咱们认为，需求方面的宽松政策将尽头要津，尤其是在什物和住房方面。别弥留。Thank you， Li Shen. I guess the next question would definitely be anything more we can expect? And in terms of you view， any specific measures are needed to really turn things around?谢谢你，李申。我想下一个问题服气是咱们还能期待什么？在你看来，是否需要采用任何具体步骤来信得过扭转场所？具体的步骤扭转场所Yeah， sure. Thanks. Yeah， for this question. So in addition to this policy easy measures announced this morning， we expect 1:25 beeps trip are cut in queue for largely in line with Governor pans heads up. We also expect central government and local governments to fulfill this years bond issuance quota， which means bundle net issues should remain solid in September and October. We believe there should be more funding and implementation arrangements to facilitate the housing destocking you know of. At least for this year， PPC has not announce the. psl quota to support housing dis discord。Working or maybe the three major projects in the public sector. Besides given， you know， falling tax and land sales revenue in recent months， we also see increased opportuni， increased possibility for the government to tape unspend bond issues quota accumulated from previous years. And theres also a slight chance for the government to revise the physical budget if needed.是的，天然。谢谢是啊，这个问题。因此，除了今天上昼秘书的政策宽松步骤外，咱们瞻望行程在很猛经由上与潘的一致。咱们还瞻望中央和场合将完成本年的债券刊行额度，这意味着9月和10月的绑缚净刊行应保合手稳当。咱们认为，应该有更多的资金和实施安排来促进你们所知说念的住房去库存化。至少在本年， 还莫得公布守旧住房的 PSL 额度。此外，鉴于最近几个月税收和地盘出让收入的下落，咱们也看到政府有更多的契机、更多的可能来哄骗往年积聚的未用完的债券刊行配额。如果需要的话，政府也有可能修改本色预算。You know， last year in October， the national peoples come. Congress sending committee revise up the fiscal deficit I in the year and issuing an additional RMB one trading central governors bond to support some infrastructure projects. We think if s top leaders feel increased urgency to do more physical easing， revising the budget could be one， you know， physical put option. And for 2025， we also maintain our forecast. There could be 25 beeps to markets and 2 to 10 beats a pass rate cuts. And we expect fiscal deficit to remain pretty supportive regardless of us election risk because you know， for this year， we do see very weak domestic demand， but the tailwind from export may not be so sustainable.要知说念，昨年 10 月，大会来了。派出委员会修改了当年的财政赤字，并增发了一笔东说念主民币交游央行债券，以守旧一些基础步地名目。咱们认为，如果高层感到更有必要采用更多的什物宽松政策，那么修改预算可能是一个什物投放的弃取。对于 2025 年，咱们也保管预测。阛阓可能会出现 25 次bp，2 到 10 次降息。咱们瞻望，不管选举风险怎么，财政赤字都将保合手尽头的守旧性，因为你知说念，就本年而言，咱们确乎看到国内需求相称疲软，但出口的 尾风 可能不会那么合手续。Besides， regarding the effectiveness of policy easing， we do think the PBOC announcement today is helpful， but monetary easing alone is not a game changer without demand side stimulus， this may only perform as pushing on a string.此外，对于宽松政策的灵验性，咱们确乎认为中国东说念主民银行今天的声明是有匡助的，但如果莫得需求方面的刺激步骤，仅靠货币宽松政策是无法改变游戏法则的，这可能只可起到煽风焚烧的作用。So thats why for coming months or so， its very crucial to track up Ministry of Finance， NDRC and say council very closely to see any upcoming signals on， you know， demand side stimulus. We think， you know， just a very rough estimates if policy makers really want to turn things around， they at least need stimulus package of above RMB 5 trillion with RMB three trading to help， you know， hosting this docking on B1 trading to help local governments about their debt repayment. And another RMB one trading or more to support the， you know， household balance sheet recovery. But at this stage， you know， with still short of funding. So fundamentally key question is， you know， show me more money.因此，在改日几个月傍边的时辰里，密切追踪财政部、发改委和院的动向至关紧迫，以了解行将出现的需求刺激信号。咱们认为，你知说念，仅仅一个相称粗糙的推测，如果制定者简直想扭转场所，他们至少需要 5 万亿元东说念主民币以上的刺激计较，其中包括三笔东说念主民币交游，你知说念，托管交游，匡助场合政府偿还债务。另外还需要一个或更多的东说念主民币交游来守旧家庭财富欠债表的规复。但在现阶段，你知说念，资金仍然短少。是以从根底上说，要津问题是，给我更多的钱。And into year ends， whats the events we should watch out for or the timelines in terms of policies possibly you can coming out.插足年底，咱们应该戒备哪些事件，或者你们可能出台的政策的时辰表。年底前关注的东西Thanks. Yeah， regarding this question， so in October， although theres no confirm dates for major events， but we do see increase the client interest in， you know， October political meeting plus next National People Congress Standing committee meeting because， you know， occasionally the October part of meeting， policymakers can， during that period， policymakers can discuss micro and policy. The most recent October policy Bill meeting where policymakers discuss micro and policy was in 2018， not anytime soon. But if they focus on this area， we may see more easy signal from that events well around the final week of October or even early November， we may have the next NPC sending committee meeting. You know， last year on October the 24th， top leadership revise up the fiscal budget and approve the additional RB one trading CGB issuance if they want to do so. This could be a potential window. But you know， US election will be on November the 5th. Thats a tradeoff for them to convince the event early or later.谢谢。是的，对于这个问题，在 10 月份，天然莫得详情关键事件的日历，但咱们确乎看到客户对 10 月份的会议和下一次世界大会委员会议的兴致有所加多，因为，你知说念，偶尔在 10 月份的部分会议上，制定者不错，在此期间筹商微不雅和政策。最近一次方案者筹商微不雅和政策的 10 月政策法案会议是在 2018 年，不是很快。但如果他们关注这一畛域，咱们可能会看到更多来自这一事件的纯粹信号，好在 10 月的临了一周以致 11 月初，咱们可能会迎来下一次世界委员会会议。要知说念，昨年 10 月 24 日，最高层修改了财政预算，并批准增发 RB One 交游 CGB（如果他们想这样作念的话）。这可能是一个潜在的窗口期。但要知说念，好意思国大选将于 11 月 5 日举行。对他们来说，这是一个劝服事件发生夙夜的衡量。Well， beside these events for China， the next major policy meeting window will be mainly in December， including the December policy meeting， usually around the first or second week of December， plus a central economic work conference， which usually falls on， you know， mid to late December. So watch out for that events. But besides this， theres also a possibility for the State Council. No， and you know， the different ministries to hold some ad hoc meetings. Even for todays announcement， it was held by， you know， the State Council information Office ad hoc meeting. The name is to support Chinas high quality growth. If policymakers are in a rush to announce some major easy measures， there could be a repeat of this mornings experience. So， you know， its a quite uncertain but worth tracking closely.除了中国的这些事件外，下一个紧迫的会议窗口将主要在12月，包括12月会议，常常在12月的第一周或第二周傍边，还有经济责任会议，常常在12月中下旬。是以要戒备这些事件。除此以外，国院也有可能召开会议。不，你知说念，不同的部委也会召开一些非常会议。即使是今天的公告，亦然由国院新闻办公室召开的非常会议。口头上是守旧中国的高质料增长。如果制定者急于秘书一些关键的宽松步骤，可能会重蹈今天上昼的覆辙。是以，你知说念，这是一个尽头省略情但值得密切追踪的问题。Thank you very much， Li Shen. Next， Yi， I guess as a China property analyst， you have seen quite some policy eating on the property sites in the past 1，2 years， but the impact on is very limited. Whats your view now post this property using policy coming out? Do you think its enough to boost the physical markets?相称感谢，李申。接下来，易先生，我想行为又名中国房地产分析师，您在往日的一、两年中看到了不少政策对房地产的影响，但影响相称有限。此次房地产使用政策出台后，您有什么见识？您认为这足以推动房地产阛阓的发展吗？对于房地产Yeah， I， I bottom line， I think this round of policy measures is still， I would say its a positive， but its still far from enough. So if I can break down each of the announcement related to the housing measures.是的，我的底线是，我认为这一轮的政策步骤仍然是积极的，但还远远不够。是以，如果我能把与住房步骤相干的公告一一细分的话。Firstly， cut down payment for second home buyers. So the down payment for first time and the second home buyers are now the same at the 15%， but we dont think that the， this going to be very effective on the back of still very negative property price expectation on the supply and demand imbalance and household， the leveraging trend on challenging job market and wage growth outlook.起初，裁减二次购房者的首付比例。面前，初度购房者和二次购房者的首付比例交流，均为 15%，但咱们认为，在供需失衡、家庭杠杆化趋势、奇迹阛阓和工资增长久景充满挑战的配景下，对房地产价钱的预期仍然相称悔过，这种作念法不会相称灵验。Meanwhile， we also think that the banks will be prudent about executing high LTV mortgage lending on rising for closure pressure. The second one is raising relanding quota from 60 to 60% to hundred percent. You as you can tell that the incremental skill increase for this， you know， local SOE by inventory will increased from previous 500 billion to 600 billion， affecting this ratio in change. And also because of the lower rates， the blended rates for the whole， you know， lending to local SOEs will be about to two point， 2.25% versus previous 2.4 to 2.5%. So that helps given that this getting closer to the rental yield， but still given the execution remains， in our view， quite challenging in terms of what types of property to buy. And also dont forget the rental yield doesnt count in vacancy. So if its a vacancy adjusted， the rental yield， it could be even lower. So I think not only the skill is still far from enough， but also the rate is not lower enough as starting point in terms of inventory reduction.同期，咱们也认为，在倒闭压力上升的情况下，银行会审慎推行高按揭成数的按揭贷款。其次是将重置配额从 60% 到 60% 进步到 100%。不错看出，场合国企的增量手段加多，存量将从以前的 5000 亿加多到 6000 亿，影响了这一比例的变化。另外，由于利率裁减，通盘对场合国有企业贷款的搀杂利率将从之前的 2.4%至 2.5%降至 2.25%。因此，这有助于进步房钱收益率，但在咱们看来，就购买何种类型的房产而言，推行起来仍颇具挑战性。另外，别忘了房钱收益率并不计入空置率。因此，如果调动了空置率，房钱收益率可能会更低。因此，我认为不仅时期还远远不够，并且行为减少库存的着手，房钱也不够低。As we analyzed before， we need the government take a first step with a two training package. To clear about 10% of total sellable inventory available in the primary market， not to mention a rising supply in the secondary market. Cut interest rate for existing mortgage is actually still below， I think， our expectation. Previously， we expect 200 fi， 50 billion interest saving from cutting existing mortgage rate. And now its according to governor， its 150 billion.正如咱们之前分析的那样，咱们需要政府迈出第一步，开展两项培训计较。算帐一手房阛阓约 10%的可售库存，更毋庸说二手房阛阓抑遏加多的供应量。现存房贷利率的下调本色上仍低于咱们的预期。此前，咱们瞻望现存典质贷款利率下调可简约 2，000 亿至 500 亿好意思元的利息。而面前，凭证行长的说法，是 1500 亿。But we understand this could be just the first step that the government might do more to revise the existing mortgage landing rate. But still in terms of interest rate， interest expense saving for this hundred fifty balance， only 2 to 3% of urban household disposal income or about less than 1% of， you know， retail sales. So the impact on consumption probably still quite limited and its probably also not going to reverse the prepayment， the pressure given a still huge gap between a revised down mortgage rate and， you know， a deposit rate for five years.但咱们知说念，这可能仅仅第一步，政府可能会采用更多步骤来修改现存的典质贷款利率。但就利率而言，为这一百五十万余额简约的利息开销，仅占城市家庭处置收入的 2%至 3%，或约占零卖额的不到 1%。因此，鉴于下调后的房贷利率与五年期进款利率之间仍然存在强大差距，抵破费的影响可能仍然尽头有限，并且也可能无法扭转预支款的压力。Whats new in all these mesh measures announced is allowing policy banks and commercial banks to support the land reserve buy back. So previously， it was a local government special bond allowed to buy back existing land reserve， although we havent seen much execution. But now this expanded to policy banks and commercial banks as the plan at the moment.在已公布的通盘这些网状步骤中，允许政策性银行和营业银行守桑梓盘储备回购是一个新举措。因此，以前是允许场合政府专项债券回购现存的地盘储备，天然咱们还莫得看到太多的推行。但面前，凭证面前的计较，这将扩大到政策性银行和营业银行。So without execution details， we think that the， its still quite early to assess the impact， but I think there might be follow up from the government. This should be our next focus in terms of the， what government will do to， excuse me， to be balanced supply and demand more quickly. And in terms of what is in line， actually extend operational insurance rules and 16 measures is something I think you know is in line given developers liquidity conditions year today in the weak physical market conditions. So the extension of the raw maturities that previously set at the end of this year is kind of in line. So overall， we think this set of new measures is incrementally helpful but is still far from enough to turn around housing market.因此，在莫得推行细节的情况下，咱们认为面前评估其影响还为前卫早，但我认为政府可能会采用后续步履。这应该是咱们下一步关注的要点，即政府将采用哪些步骤，以更快地结束供需均衡。至于什么是允洽轨则的，本色上，辩论到开发商的流动性景况，在如今什物阛阓疲软的情况下，延迟运营保障法则和16项步骤是允洽轨则的。因此，延迟之前在本年年底设定的原始到期日亦然允洽条目的。因此，总体而言，咱们认为这一系列新步骤是渐进式的，但仍远远不及以扭转房地产阛阓。Cool. Thank you， Yi si. I guess the common question I had today from investor is that basically， we have seen this movie before many times. China rallied on this like Po Po policy support and then faded afterwards on continuous week fundamentals. Do you see anything different this round?真酷谢谢你，Yi si。我想今天投资者忽视的共同问题是，基本上，咱们照旧看过这部电影好屡次了。中国在政策守旧下反弹，然后在招引一周的基本面守旧下回落。你认为这一轮有什么不同吗？这一次的不同Yes， this time I think definitely its pretty rare for us to have such a conference joint have by three leaders together and announce both monetary policies， property policies as well as equity market policies together. So this gesture definitely send a very strong policy easing signal. Thats what we see is different from previous round of policy easing.是的，此次我认为，三位率领一都召开这样的纠合会议，同期秘书货币政策、房地产政策和股市政策，这对咱们来说总共短长常旷费的。因此，这一姿态无疑发出了相称浓烈的政策宽松信号。这即是咱们所看到的与前几轮宽松政策不同的场合。The other thing is we also notice that this in terms of policy directions， theyre to the point according to our recent marketing feedback. We see the key investor concerns are still around property. Definitely， investors are looking forward to have more policy easing or stimulus to s effectively stabilize the property markets. So besides what we had from the April political meeting， definitely people are hoping to have more. So thats why todays announcement， I think its also helpful.另外，咱们还戒备到，凭证咱们最近的阛阓反馈，在政策导向方面，这些政策是刀刀见血的。咱们看到，投资者关注的要点仍然是房地产。毫无疑问，炒期货投资者但愿有更多的宽松政策或刺激步骤来灵验踏实房地产阛阓。因此，除了四月份的政事会议以外，东说念主们服气还但愿有更多的政策出台。因此，我认为今天的声明也很有匡助。On the other hand， especially for China onshore investors， the lack of capital inflows is another challenge theyre facing， especially if we look at a mutual funds， new capital raising is pretty low over the past one years. So definitely retail sentiment is low. So for the Asian market particularly， we see limited source of inflows. Foreign buying is also limited. So if we look at the recent policies announce around the equity market， definitely they are providing different sources of capital to support the market， including bringing long term capital and also in terms of providing the liquidity provision program that will provide liquidity either through the financial institutions or through the corporates. So definitely， we have more capital can be used to buy equities. So this is also parts positive and welcomed by investors.另一方面，非常是对于中国的在岸投资者来说，资金流入不及是他们靠近的另一个挑战，尤其是如果咱们看一下共同基金，在往日的一年里，新的资金召募量尽头低。因此，散户的情谊服气很低垂。因此，非常是在亚洲阛阓，咱们看到流入资金来源有限。异邦购买也很有限。因此，如果咱们望望最近围绕股票阛阓秘书的政策，它们服气会提供不同的资金来源来守旧阛阓，包括引入永恒老本，以及提供流动性供应计较，通过金融机构或企业提供流动性。因此，咱们服气有更多的资金不错用来购买股票。因此，这亦然积极的部分，受到投资者的接待。But coming back to the market， whether we will have a sustainable Riley from the current level， what we believe is we still need more support from the physical side. That is not discussed today. So we will continue monitoring in the following weeks whether we will see more policy on the physical side. And the other thing is from the company perspective， we hope to see more fundamental improvement in terms of earnings delivery. If we look at the HR market over the past two quarters， earnings is pretty weak. We have around 0% earnings growth over the past two quarters， so that is challenging. So that is what we hope to have in a longer term that after all the policies， we need to see the effectiveness.但回到阛阓上来，咱们是否会从面前的水平合手续高潮，咱们认为咱们仍然需要来自什物方面的更多守旧。今天莫得筹商这个问题。因此，在接下来的几周里，咱们将不时关注什物方面是否会有更多的政策出台。另外，从公司的角度来看，咱们但愿在盈利方面看到更多的基本面改善。如果咱们望望往日两个季度的东说念主力资源阛阓，盈利尽头疲软。往日两个季度，咱们的盈利增长约为 0%，是以这很有挑战性。因此，从长久来看，咱们但愿在通盘政策出台后，大概看到收效。But on the positive side， if we look at the current market valuation as well as investor positioning， both are at the low end. If we look at the investor positioning currently， headfunds only allocate 6.8% in Chinese equity， which is the five year low level， even lower be than the February， March level and around one percentage point lower than the April and may peak level. So that means theres still much room for them to raise their allocation. And also， if we look at the valuation for mscr China， even after todays rally， mscr China is only trading at 9.3 times pe， still around 10% below our fair PD forecast. And if the recent policy could even reduce the risks and equity risk premium， that means we may have more room for valuation to rerate.但从积极的一面来看，如果咱们望望面前的阛阓估值和投资者定位，两者都处于低位。如果咱们看一下投资者面前的定位，头部基金在中国股票阛阓的建立比例仅为6.8%，这是五年来的最低水平，以致低于2、3月份的水平，比4、5月份的峰值水平低了约一个百分点。因此，这意味着他们仍有很大的空间来进步建立比例。此外，如果咱们看一下中国出动的估值，即使在今天的反弹之后，中国出动的市盈率也只消 9.3 倍，仍然比咱们的公允市盈率预测低 10%傍边。如果近期的政策以致不错裁减风险和股票风险溢价，这意味着咱们可能有更大的估值上起飞间。So these are the positive things that may provide more upside for investors. So thats why we think this time， at least from the signal perspective， the policies are still quite important. But what， but we need to see more follow UPS.因此，这些积极身分可能会为投资者带来更多的上起飞间。是以咱们认为，至少从信号的角度来看，此次的政策照旧尽头紧迫的。然则，咱们需要看到更多的后续 UPS。Thank you. I guess like next would be what to buy. So in terms of the sector preference and themes， whats your view now?谢谢。我想接下来即是买什么了。那么在行业偏好和主题方面，你面前有什么见识？接下来买什么Yeah， as I mentioned that fundamental is still important. So for us， we still believe in the near term， each shares may out， may have a larger chance to outperform a， because of stronger fundamental. If we look at the internet sector and all the offshore stocks in aggregate， they still deliver more than 10% earnings growth over the past two quarter compare to around zero earnings growth for a shares. And also from the liquidity perspective， if the US Fed rate cut can bring more foreign capital back to the equity market， that may benefit offshore stocks more than onshore. These are the important factors in the near term that may continue supporting it shares. But in the longer term， we believe the onshore capital market reforms， including boosting shareholder return. This time， they also mention to have market value management.是的，正如我提到的，基本面仍然很紧迫。因此，对咱们来说，咱们仍然信赖，在短期内，由于基本面较强，每只股票都可能有更大的契机跑赢A股。如果咱们看一下互联网行业和通盘离岸股票的总体情况，它们在往日两个季度的盈利增长仍然突出 10%，而 A 股的盈利增长大要为零。此外，从流动性的角度来看，如果好意思国联邦储备委员会降息能让更多的异邦老本重返股市，那么离岸股票可能会比在岸股票更受益。这些都是短期内可能不时守旧离岸股的紧迫身分。但从永恒来看，咱们认为在岸老本阛阓的转换，包括进步鼓吹答复。这一次，他们还提到要有市值料理。So from the valuation perspective， that will be helpful for Asias in the longer term. In terms of sectors， we continue like internet sector and also in terms of themes， companies with strong shareholder return either through dividend paying or through backbacks， we still like them marginally if we can see more fiscal policy stimulus， then we would recommend investors to marginally add more cyclic cost docs to their portfolio. And more recently， the trading program， which is also on track. Many investors are seeing some positive improvements in terms of the consumption after the policy announced， so thats why we also see increasing interest in the consumer space. So these are the sectors we keep an eye on right now.因此，从估值的角度来看，这对亚洲的永恒发展会有匡助。在行业方面，咱们不时看好互联网行业，在主题方面，通过派息或回购得回丰厚鼓吹答复的公司，如果咱们能看到更多的财政政策刺激，咱们仍然会稍稍看好这些公司，然后咱们会建议投资者在其投资组合中稍稍加多更多的周期性成本文献。最近，交游计较也在按计较进行。在政策公布后，许多投资者都看到了破费方面的一些积极改善，因此咱们也看到东说念主们抵破费畛域的兴致越来越大。因此，这些都是咱们面前关注的行业。Got it. Lastly， Faden， as our sales trader， I guess you got so many question ask today on whats flow do you see? Is it more hedge fund like short covering or we definitely s where we see any lonely come in? Like whats the flow we see?知说念了临了，法登，行为咱们的销售交游员，我猜你今天有好多问题要问，你看到了什么流动？是更多的对冲基金像空头回补，照旧咱们服气会看到任何作死马医？咱们看到的流动情况怎么？Sure. Hey， thank you very much. And yeah， do a good， you know， appreciate Li Sheng and Seafus note here. I think， you know， starting in the morning， I guess myself included the feedback initially as the press conference was underway， you know， a lot of the skeptism， right， especially expectations were pretty low. Like you said， weve seen this movie before， you know， especially when the PBOC governor started talking about triple our rate cuts， you know， policy rate cuts， a mortgage refi smoothly youngs and around the floor.天然，嘿，相称感谢。是的，作念得很好，你知说念，很感谢李胜和海夫在这里确凿认。我认为，你知说念，从早上脱手，我想包括我我方在内，在新闻发布会进行的当先阶段，你知说念，好多东说念主都合手怀疑作风，对吧，尤其是祈望值很低。就像你说的，咱们以前看过这部电影，你知说念，非常是当东说念主行行长脱手辩驳咱们的三倍降息，你知说念，政策性降息，典质贷款再融资顺利。I think buyers only started to pay real attention here after the market continue to rally following the mention of 800 billion renminbi of initial liquidity support for the market. And also， I think more importantly here， a plan for potential market stabilization fund.我认为，只消在说起为阛阓提供 8000 亿东说念主民币的启动流动性守旧后，阛阓不时反弹，买家才脱手信得过关注这里。此外，我认为更紧迫的是，潜在的阛阓踏实基金计较。I think thats very important here. The overall announcement， I think its unprecedented. Its very monetary and specifically equity market focused， right? So， you know， some clients are indeed worrying about the structural economic issues remaining in place like， you know， fiscal difficulties， the property， etc.我认为这极少相称紧迫。我认为，通盘公告是史无先例的。它相称防备货币，非常是股市，对吗？是以，你知说念，有些客户确乎总结经济结构性问题依然存在，比如，你知说念，财政艰难、房地产等。但我认为，今天的公告主若是为了搞定股市的信心问题。未来上昼 10 点，发改委将召开新闻发布会，筹商一些短处，可能是破费方面的转换，还包括设备交游计较的更新等。我认为，跟着最高央行和最高金融监管机构的到位，我认为，再次发出的信号短长常明确的，那即是一些东西正在逶迤到那儿，你知说念，更多的地区或场合政府和不同的机构将跟进，你知说念，他们我方的公告。我认为这是咱们以前从未见过的。因此，阛阓步履水平，你知说念的，相称明晰地透露了这种关心。I think in China， the turnover would just under 1 trillion women. B again， thats the highest since the may rally. Hong Kong turnover was even more ex stream here. I think its because when foreign investors， when they look at addressing China underway， they typically start with offshore Hong Kong markets first to， you know， get some delta first before they decide on what to do next. So Hong Kong turnover was 2 hundred and forty two billion Hong Kong dollar. Thats the highest level since may of 2，022. So just for context， thats almost 20% higher than the highest turnover day this year in may during their rally.我认为在中国，成交额将略低于 1 万亿好意思元。这亦然自五月反弹以来的最高值。香港的成交额以致比这还要高。我认为，这是因为当异邦投资者辩论在中国投资时，他们常常会先从离岸的香港阛阓脱手，你知说念，先得回一些三角洲，然后再决定下一步怎么作念。因此，香港的成交额达到了 242 亿港元。这是自5月份2022亿港元以来的最高水平。这比本年五月反弹时的最高成交额跳跃近20%。So certainly the market is taking this a lot more seriously here， right? The， our pad is， you know， it is reflecting this increased level of trading in the market. Hong Kong， for example， we treat nearly two and a half times of our two week daily average notional. So you， even though we started in the morning as some of the clients here， you know， to have a conversation with me during the day， understand that we have a self skill in the morning， but the market rally continuing.因此，阛阓服气会愈加隆重地对待这件事，对吗？咱们的垫子反馈了阛阓交游量的加多。以香港为例，咱们的交游量简直是两周日均口头交游量的两倍半。因此，即使咱们像这里的一些客户通常从早上脱手，你知说念，在白昼与我进行对话，了解咱们在早上有一个自我手段，但阛阓反弹仍在不时。Were starting to see Hedge Fund First to start bid the market. Now that started a small consumer material energy names， you know， five， six million dollar clips， not， you know， massively inflow， but you know， in the afternoon with a very clear momentum continued throughout the lunch break and afterwards. This is where were seeing global lonellies actually starting to get involved again. This is not massive， but typically with the lonely biz， they come in a business slower and it takes them longer to digest this. But were seeing consumer and financials are standing out in what the long owners are buying， and the hedge funds are following through in these similar sectors as well in the afternoon， especially when our European client base is just waking up.咱们脱手看到对冲基金脱手竞相入市。面前，脱手有一个小的破费材料动力称呼，你知说念，五六百万好意思元的片断，你知说念，不是大范围流入，但你知说念，不才午有一个相称赫然的势头合手续通盘午休时辰和之后。在这里，咱们看到全球的独角兽们又脱手参与进来了。天然范围不大，但常常情况下，独角兽企业的业务发展速率较慢，他们需要更长的时辰来消化这些信息。但咱们看到，在多头买入的股票中，破费和金融股进展隆起，对冲基金也不才午跟进这些类似的板块，尤其是当咱们的欧洲客户群刚刚醒来的时候。面前咱们来望望 A 股。咱们在这里仍然有一个小的销售部队，对吗？正如我提到的，公式常常是从离岸阛阓脱手的。是以，你知说念，在咱们的说念路上，推动东说念主力资源阛阓的买家，大多是异邦对冲基金。他们的出价尽头激进，尤其是像白酒这样的破费类居品，在多头价钱回落和近期关联破费的负面新闻之后，一直在抛售。因此，咱们面前看到对冲基金在积极追赶茅台五粮液等居品，但这里的多头仍在横盘抛售，对吗？我认为，由于亚洲在岸阛阓的性质，要让异邦作死马医地插足中国亚洲阛阓，还需要一些劝服责任。然则，如果你认为介入亚洲阛阓为时已晚，你知说念，沪深 300 指数刚刚回到 2 月份的春节水平，而面前距离 2024 年 5 月的日高点仍有 10%的跌幅，沪深 300 指数日跌幅为 2.3%。So just， you know， for context， right? And then in addition， I think for the hedge fund crowd that， you know could have a derivative mandate， we trade a meaningful size and a shares of side in the call option format， for example， in CSI. Three hundred expiration ahead of the year end was a particularly most popular， you know， intro day CSI. Three hundred volt move， nearly three volts.是以，你知说念，这仅仅配景，对吗？此外，我认为，对于对冲基金东说念主群来说，你知说念，他们可能有繁衍品任务，咱们以看涨期权的神志进行有意想的范围和份额交游，举例，CSI。年底前的三百伏到期日是中证指数最受接待的日子。三百伏的出动，近三伏。因此，我认为此次的声明再次标明，中国政府但愿起初从股市脱手，搞定股市永恒疲软的问题。但你知说念，一朝有了信心，临了的买家，踏实的音信就会出现。我认为，接下来可能会有旨在信得过开导或踏实经济的步骤。这并封闭易，但我认为从面前脱手，风险答复脱手变得有意想了。我认为，在不久的将来，HR相对于H股的优异进展可能会不时保合手。再有，我想类似一下，你知说念，咱们一直在关注高股息的具体主题，举例，A 或 H，咱们有篮子，举例鼓吹答复场景。我认为这可能受益最大，因为很赫然，北京正在招引额外流动性的去处，你知说念，提供鼓吹答复、MMA 等。因此，我认为，你知说念，在这个时辰点上，我不会成为火车的斗士鉴于时辰有限，我想咱们就到此为止。网上还有好多问题。接待随时筹商销售团队和研究团队。咱们相称乐意提供匡助，并但愿阛阓能信得过从这里脱手合手续发展。相称感谢人人今天的参与。